Welcome to The Macro Strategist
Where macro meet markets
2013: As an original China bear, Chris forecasted a failure to diversify the economy would eventually lead to perpetual economic support via central bank policies.
2014: Fundamental bear of WTI oil at $77 per bbl, the target of $26 per bbl was initiated along with collateral economic damage in the U.S. and Canada.
2015: Chris was the only one on record to call for a correction in the S&P 500 and bullish on long-end bonds, which both came to fruition. In April, he foretasted a U.S. recession. There would be five sequential declines in U.S. GDP but no recession.
In October, Chris correctly forecasted deterioration in high-yield credit and predicted the S&P 500 would follow. What followed was the worst start of the year for U.S. equities ever.
2016: Aside from remaining bullish on U.S. bonds, the addition of gold and silver were added as a tactical play on safe-haven money flows.
In August, the obvious divergence of U.S. monetary policy from the rest of the world was beginning, the move into the U.S. dollar was made with the implicit action to roll-off and go bullish on gold.
Structurally bearish on Turkey, the lira and its dollar-denominated debt.
2017: Bearish on the U.S. dollar via widening fiscal deficits, rate of change in macro data, particularly consumer prices and inflation expectations and drainage in extreme net-long positioning.
Reiteration on the bearish outlook on Turkey and the addition of Brazilian real (DEC) would occur.
2018: Chris was the only one to begin the secular bull case of the U.S. dollar in February and March, which coincided with a bear call on gold.
The Federal Reserve's continued policy divergence, collapsing yield curve and breakout of dollar funding rates and real yields would be the supportive case.
On January 28, Chris warned of the stark divergence in the short-volatility ETF XIV with broader equity markets and the potential of a negative-feed back loop were short-volatility holders would actively sell SPX futures as a hedge.
Days later, the XIV would lose 90 percent in a signal day causing the VIX to hit 50 (from 12.50 three days prior). The S&P 500 sold off nearly 12 percent.
Supportive of sectors that outperform during flattening 10s/2s yield curve, such as utilities, healthcare, consumer staples and REITs.